Happy New Year

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If you are related to financial field, you have already heard that on 1-Apr, if not well it’s beginning of new financial year. I know it’s really a bad joke to begin when I want to deliver a very serious message. Key reason behind me writing to you is, to make this world a better place in my own way, I know there is always a NGO to whom we can write a cheque and get it done. But after doing it, I wasn’t satisfied hence have been trying out new way of giving back to society in my own way. My education & job background is heavily related to finance – stock market to be more specific, hence I thought of helping through that. Below is the key advice, that I have garnered through own & others experience over period of time. (This advice is for age group of 25-40)

Don’t think about stock market investment till you have done below enlisted steps

  • Insurance is for your family not for you, so buy term policy and think of how much money your family will get if you die – stop thinking, what if I survive, I don’t get anything, this is bad deal, remember insurance is for your FAMILY not for YOU. Also don’t buy insurance just for saving tax. (What this also means is bye bye to all those LIC schemes which returns you money with some bonus after 20/30/40 yrs – returns are in line with saving account. Only say YES to term plan.
  • Buy a good mediclaim at least worth 4-5 lakh per person, if its family of 4/6 well multiple that by amount by 4/6. If you have a corporate mediclaim buy that and make sure everyone is covered there.
  • If you have senior citizen parents that are not covered, go to PNB or Bank or Bank of Baroda they have cheap senior citizen plan – rest all are very very expensive, choice is yours.
  • Emergency fund – Now keep 6 months worth of expenses in cash or saving account or liquid fund or unused credit card for emergency – don’t touch this for anything that is not emergency.
  • If you have outstanding loan, first pay that off or plan for that before doing anything else.
  • Now start a SIP for your retirement – equity MF is best.
  • Also start SIP for college education for your kid (some may start this before earlier one, choice is yours).
  • Start SIP for holidays include your long weekend picnics too.
  • SIP for 4/5 yearly car upgrade.
  • Now if you are left with any money go ahead and come to stock market.

This is the most important message that I want drive home to everybody, I have noticed many of husbands either don’t tell their wife/family about financial investment/assets or wife/family didn’t bother asking (in few instances vice versa also). It’s advisable to make a list and share it, so in worst case scenario s/he is aware about it and manage rest of the life peacefully.

I am not an insurance agent or a financial advisor/planner nor do I give stock market tips.

If you think above outlined plan is too much for you, hire a financial advisor whose interests are align with your goals and not his commission.

Good luck and Happy New Year

 

Read, Learn, Improve – 1-Apr-17

 

 

Read, Learn, Improve – 1-Apr-17

The body is the missing link for truly intelligent machines – Link here

We draw on experiences and expectations to predict likely outcomes from a relatively small number of observed samples. So when a human thinks about a cat, she can probably picture the way it moves, hear the sound of purring, feel the impending scratch from an unsheathed claw. She has a rich store of sensory information at her disposal to understand the idea of a ‘cat’, and other related concepts that might help her interact with such a creature.

This means that when a human approaches a new problem, most of the hard work has already been done. In ways that we’re only just beginning to understand, our body and brain, from the cellular level upwards, have already built a model of the world that we can apply almost instantly to a wide array of challenges. But for an AI algorithm, the process begins from scratch each time. There is an active and important line of research, known as ‘inductive transfer’, focused on using prior machine-learned knowledge to inform new solutions. However, as things stand, it’s questionable whether this approach will be able to capture anything like the richness of our own bodily models.

This is some history class for investors – The mysterious man who owns one solitary share in the unlisted Tata Sons – Link here

SILICON VALLEY’S QUEST TO LIVE FOREVER – Can billions of dollars’ worth of high-tech research succeed in making death optional? – Link here

wish to preserve life as we know it, even at the cost of dying, is profoundly human. We are encoded with the belief that death is the mother of beauty. And we are encoded, too, with the contradictory determination to remain exactly as we are, forever—or at least for just a bit longer, before we have to go.

We all have been guilty of taking wrong decision in life at some point, well here is one solution – Before you make an emotional decision, ask yourself these four questions – Link here

Cars and second order consequences – Link hereThis gives some amazing insight into how electric & automated car will change things – for starters

  • Full autonomy, is a bit further off – perhaps 5-10 years,
  • Since gas is sold at very low margins, these retailers make their actual money as convenience stores, so what happens to the products that are sold there?
    Gasoline is taxed, much less in the USA than in many other developed markets: it is 4% of UK tax revenue, for example. That tax revenue will have to be replaced, with other taxes on things that may be more elastic, and there will be economic and political consequences to that.
  • Even simple ‘Level 3’ systems would cut many kinds of accident, and as more vehicles with more sophisticated systems, moving up to Level 5, cycle into the installed base over time, the collision rate will drop continuously. That, in turn, has consequences for vehicle design – if you have no collisions then eventually you can remove many of the safety features in today’s vehicles, all of which add cost and weight and constrain the overall design – no more airbags or crumple zones, perhaps.
  • video on phantom jams – I believe this the reason behind most of the jams that happen in Andheri

Where Markets Fail: Markets Assume Fungibility – Link here

Selling Sugar Short? – Link here – I wonder what this means for nation of india , that has huge history and consumption of Mithai. 

How to get rich like Warren Buffett – Link herean outline of plan on how to scam someone using Warren Buffett and his quotes.

UP’s Anti-Abattoir Campaign Could Cripple Prime Revenue- And Job-Generating Industries – Link here

The Milk that lasts for months – Ultra-heat-treated milk is a shelf staple, especially in tropical climes where milk easily spoils. BBC Future investigates its special properties – Link here

Yuval Harari on why humans won’t dominate Earth in 300 years – Link here

Intelligence is not consciousness. Intelligence is the ability to solve problems. Consciousness is the ability to feel things. In humans and other animals, the two indeed go together. The way mammals solve problems is by feeling things. Our emotions and sensations are really an integral part of the way we solve problems in our lives. However, in the case of computers, we don’t see the two going together.

‘Bro, I’m Going Rogue’: The Wall Street Informant Who Double-Crossed the FBI – Guy Gentile flipped, and flipped again – Link here

HFT as an insight into where fintech is going – Link here

In the worst case scenario, those who know they’re being disadvantaged withdraw from the market completely, sabotage the data as best they can or — one might imagine — openly revolt against the system altogether (say by finding a way to nab some of the returns for themselves HFT-style or voting in powers which promise to protect them no matter what).

Instagram Killed the Retail StoreLink here

Novice investor take valuation at face value, take math and apply it as it is and they get answer, very often answer is different from prevailing price in market. This is when they approach or listen to professionals and get to know Valuation is 50% Maths and 50% Arts. This gets more brilliantly highlighted in new proposal by David Einhorn – Founder of Hedge Fund Greenlight Capital LLC – for General Motors – Hedge-Fund Manager Wants to Rearrange GM’s StockLink here . You can check out complete proposal – Link here – I think Tata Motors has already done same thing.

Finance is about dividing up risks, and allocating those risks to the people most able and willing to bear them. People who want more risk cushion those who want more safety; people who want more safety compensate the willing risk-takers for that insurance; everyone is better off. Progress in finance, then, is about finding clever ways to slice risks more finely and market them to people who want them. People who like General Motors’s business but want safe steady income can just buy its bonds. People who like its business and want more upside in exchange for more risk can buy its common stock. But these are crude divisions, and a true financial visionary will see a category of risk — Dividend Shares — that doesn’t exist yet and try to fill that need.

The Management Myth – Most of management theory is inane, writes our correspondent, the founder of a consulting firm. If you want to succeed in business, don’t get an M.B.A. Study philosophy insteadLink here – very long read.

The reason Hollywood’s studio leadership is in flux: The business model is changing – Link here

Why Yale and Columbia are accepting students from a university that holds classes in a basement in Tehran – Link here

This makes for a fun read – What If Other Areas of Life Operated Like Wall Street?Link here

 

Read, Learn, Improve – 25-Mar-17

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If there is one brokerage house on street that is on mission of educating market participate at large on investing, its Ambit. This time they did a townhall with Mr. KN Sivasubramanian’s – Ex-CIO, Franklin Templeton and it is nothing short of amazing learning experience that one can ask for. Here is full transcript of the same – Ambit-Townhall-Mar17-2017.pdf-1 . Ignore everything and read this first, miss at your own peril.

The cheapskates who don’t want to spend on the big, fat Indian wedding – Link here

Why Carlos Ghosn took ten years to taste success in India – Link here

Ritholtz’s Rules of Valuations – Link here

The secret war on your savings has already begun!! – Link here

Apple’s next big thing: augmented reality – Apple has built a team combining the

The cheapskates who don’t want to spend on the big, fat Indian wedding – Link here

Why Carlos Ghosn took ten years to taste success in India – Link here

Ritholtz’s Rules of Valuations – Link here

The secret war on your savings has already begun!! – Link here

Apple’s next big thing: augmented reality – Apple has built a team combining the strengths of its hardware and software veterans by acquiring small firms with knowledge of augmented reality hardware, 3D gaming and virtual reality – Link here

Gradual Improvements Go Unnoticed – Link here“Bill Gates said: “Headlines, in a way, are what mislead you, because bad news is a headline, and gradual improvement is not.”

How food delivery apps have changed the game for restaurants – Link here

Silicon Valley likes to “move fast and break things.” What happens when it makes cars? – Link here

“Why American Farmers Are Hacking Their Tractors With Ukrainian Firmware” (DE) – Link herejust wondering if any Indian and Chinese tractor manufacturing are taking advantage of the situation or not?

A startup says it can now produce enough for 4 million meatless burgers a month – Link hereI think India just found how to save its cow or India’s beef export may just get hit?

The Behavior of Stock Market Manias – Link hereThis article is based on book called Bull by Maggie Mahar – it has taken one example of Dell computers to highlight use & misuse of ESOPs, buyback and of course playing derivative market when your core job was to manufacture & sell PC- super article MUST READ

Although Dell (the founder) was personally selling his own shares, he clearly he wasn’t concerned about using Dell (the company) cash to buy back excessively overvalued shares. In fact, the company readily admitted that the shares repurchased weren’t done with any sort of benchmark to value, they were done simply to offset the dilutive effects of the huge number of options that the company executives gave themselves.

Connect to Levo at airports and network for business deals in a lounge – Link here – I guess analyst/FM would hope to run into management of listed or even unlisted companies to understand business.

Silicon Valley Would Rather Cure Death Than Make Life Worth Living – Link here

This reminds me of a scene from movie Troy between Achilles and Briseis where Briseis is lecturing Achilles about God and Achilles says “I’ll tell you a secret. Something they don’t teach you in your temple. The Gods envy us. They envy us because we’re mortal, because any moment might be our last. Everything is more beautiful because we’re doomed. You will never be lovelier than you are now. We will never be here again.” (YouTube Link here)

How to short Uber (and other private companies) – Link here

The Hardest Question in Portfolio Management – Link here

Take It to the Limit – Here are just 15 of the obstacles we face – Link here

Top 10 Habits of Millionaires for Building Wealth – Link here

Read, Learn, Improve – 18-Mar-17

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Buffett’s Airlines Conundrum – Link here

Global house prices – Link here

In Vancouver, home values have risen by 47% in four years; in London they have risen by 54%; and in Auckland the rise has been a whopping 75%. The influence of foreign capital flows on housing markets is being scrutinised, particularly as affordability becomes ever more stretched.

Netflix Tries to Outdo Theaters With Films a Studio Can Envy – Link here

“In every organisation, you need Brahma, Vishnu and Mahesh” – Uday Kotak interview – Link here

My most important realisation as a banker is something very basic. As a bank, say, we have Rs10 of capital and we borrow Rs100. If we lose Rs5 out of Rs110, we have lost 50% of our money; if we lose Rs10 out of Rs110, it’s time to go home. Bankers find it difficult to keep this principle in mind; most of the time, they believe they own Rs110. Equity is a very small portion of the total balance sheet of banks but bankers start believing they have control and ownership over all the assets. They don’t: it is other people’s money. If you go back globally and see the kind of lifestyles bankers lived, they lived at 50:1 leverage. They were living on borrowed money and on borrowed time. That arrogance comes from believing that you own all that leverage as your own money.

It’s a Good Time to Find a Job in These Countries, But Don’t Expect a Big Raise – Link here

Unemployment rates in Group of 7 nations such as Canada, the U.S., Britain, Japan and Germany are nearing or even slightly below what officials describe as a maxed-out jobs market. But wage gains worldwide have been only creeping along.

“I hate to say it but we may be in a new normal for wage growth,” said Omair Sharif, senior U.S. economist at Societe Generale in New York.

The Ghost Bosses – Private-equity firms have been rapidly buying and selling off companies for decades, and workers in Lancaster, Ohio, are living with the consequencesLink here

Why Intel is paying $15 billion for Mobileye – Think of your future car as a rolling computer – Link here and do read this – INTEL, MOBILEYE, AND SMILING CURVESLink here – pay attention to theory of smiling curves, very interesting, I think it can be applied to lot of sectors.

Big Tobacco Has Caught Startup Fever – It’s not smoking. It’s platform-agnostic nicotine delivery solution – Link here

This is precisely why Warren Buffett dislikes Hedge Fund – Ackman’s Investors Won’t Get Their Yachts – Link here

Are Teenagers Replacing Drugs With Smartphones? – Link here

An annual government-funded report measuring drug use by teenagers, found that past-year use of illicit drugs other than marijuana was at the lowest level in the 40-year history of the project for eighth, 10th and 12th graders

“People are carrying around a portable dopamine pump, and kids have basically been carrying it around for the last 10 years,”

This is Excerpted from a new book called  Never Out of Season: How Having the Food We Want When We Want It Threatens Our Food Supply and Our Future – Humans Made the Banana Perfect—But Soon, It’ll Be Gone – Link here

WHY FACTS DON’T CHANGE OUR MINDS – New discoveries about the human mind show the limitations of reason – Link here

Business Advice From a One Year Old – Link here

Successful Active Stock Investing is Hard: Here are Seven Traits that I Believe are Required for Active Investors to Win in the Long Term – Link here

A runaway energy industry is costing California billions – Link here (scroll ppt)

 

Read, Learn, Improve – 11-Mar-17

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The rise of the useless class – Yuval Noah Harari – Link here

So what will people do? Art is often said to provide us with our ultimate (and uniquely human) sanctuary. In a world where computers have replaced doctors, drivers, teachers and even landlords, would everyone become an artist? Yet it is hard to see why artistic creation would be safe from the algorithms. According to the life sciences, art is not the product of some enchanted spirit or metaphysical soul, but rather of organic algorithms recognizing mathematical patterns. If so, there is no reason why non-organic algorithms couldn’t master it.

Since we do not know how the job market would look in 2030 or 2040, today we have no idea what to teach our kids. Most of what they currently learn at school will probably be irrelevant by the time they are 40. Traditionally, life has been divided into two main parts: a period of learning, followed by a period of working. Very soon this traditional model will become utterly obsolete, and the only way for humans to stay in the game will be to keep learning throughout their lives and to reinvent themselves repeatedly. Many, if not most, humans may be unable to do so.

The Golden Age of Hedge Funds – Link here

First, we need to ask ‘Why’- Having answered that, we need to find what lies at the intersection of complexity and order, else lethargy or chaos is inevitable – Link here

‘Artificial Intelligence’ Has Become Meaningless – Link here

Uber and Airbnb are not the future of capitalism – Link here

Another example: peer-to-peer lending. Services like Prosper and LendingClub have used the same egalitarian rhetoric as Lyft and Airbnb. Their original pitch, a decade ago, was that they’d allow users to lend directly to other users, cutting out the middlemen and saving everyone some money.

The reality, however, is that today most of the loans on these platforms are made by banks, hedge funds, and other wealthy institutions. The peer-to-peer model made for a good marketing pitch and a good way to raise money when the sites were new and unproven. But once they’d scaled up, these platforms found it was cheaper and easier to do business with industry incumbents with enough cash to lend to hundreds of borrowers at a time.

Netflix Lesson on Focus – Link here

What to Make of These Twice-in-History S&P 500 Valuations – Link here

As with all market indicators, the CAPE ratio requires some context and caveats apply when discussing its use in making investment decisions, especially considering this data goes all the way back to the late 1800s. Every cycle is different in terms of interest rates, inflation and what type of economic environment we’re in. The U.S. economy and markets are more mature than they once were, and it’s a much wealthier country. Industry make-up and the types of corporations are completely different. The Federal Reserve didn’t exist for the first part of this dataset. Accounting standards have changed, costs to trade have come down, the markets are more liquid, and there are far more investors these days.

When Bankers Started Playing With Other People’s Money – Link here

Everybody is busy forecasting what would happen once AI or Robots take up our job so here is one more that outline how it impacts existing social life that could fundamental change society – When Factory Jobs Vanish, Men Become Less Desirable Partners – Declines in manufacturing employment are shaping the structure of the American family – Link here

$10,000 for a single phone call with a bank analyst – Asset managers and lenders in fierce negotiations over cost of investment research – Link here

Explaining a Paradox: Why Good (Bad) Companies can be Bad (Good) Investments! – Link here

How technology gets us hooked – From a young age, humans love to press buttons that light up and make a noise. The thrill of positive feedback lies at the heart of addiction to gambling, games, and social media – Link here – although article seems to be focused on video games/casinos, if you are long time market participate you can easily relate it to market , how uptick & down tick make traders happy.

Users were gambling every time they shared a photo, web link or status update. A post with zero “likes” wasn’t just privately painful, but also a kind of public condemnation: either you didn’t have enough online friends, or, worse still, your online friends weren’t impressed.

Casinos win most of the time, today, slot machines allow gamblers to play multiple lines. Every time you play, you’re more likely to win on at least one line, and the machine will celebrate with you by flashing bright lights and playing catchy tunes. If you play 15 lines, and you win on two of the lines, you make a net loss, and yet you enjoy the positive feedback that follows a win.

“Tetris is a game with a very strong negative motivation. You never see what you have done very well, and your mistakes are seen on the screen. You always want to correct them.”

On the valuation of the Indian stock market – Link here

Tools We Use to Forecast the Future Prospects of a Business – Link here

Excessive CEO Pay for Dumb Luck – Link here

Executive pay should resemble a zero-sum game. If one CEO gets a huge bonus, it means he or she is doing better than the competition — and management of those other companies should get much smaller bonuses. When you see all pay going up in an industry group, you know something’s wrong.

Drug costs too high fire the middleman – Link here

A world without wi-fi looks possible as unlimited plans catch on – Link here

Why It Took the Washing Machine So Long to Catch On – Link here

Small Political Parties Are A Thriving Business In UP – Link here

Why Dentistry Is Separate From Medicine – Link here

I accidently came across this and could not resist going through it, given he is amazing guy – Jackie Chan’s Most Gruelling Scene Ever – Link here

 

 

Read, Learn, Improve – 4-Mar-17

 

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The World’s Most Radical Experiment in Monetary Policy Isn’t Working – A generation of Japanese accustomed to falling prices have diminished the impact of negative interest rates and other stimulus that were supposed to spur wage and price increases; ‘people love to save’ – Link here

Lines that caught my attention

A Bank of Japan survey in October found only 5% of respondents planned to spend more next year, while 48% intended to cut.

“The role of parents and children is getting reversed, where the parents from the bubble generation still act like children and want to buy the fancy car, while their children in the post-bubble generation worry about their parents’ spending,”

Uniqlo founder Tadashi Yanai blames negative rates and other central bank policies, such as quantitative easing, for worrying consumers. “It’s anxiety about the future,” he said in an interview. “They have to stop negative rates. That’s idiotic.”

The Man who studies the spread of ignorance – How do people or companies with vested interests spread ignorance and obfuscate knowledge? Georgina Kenyon finds there is a term which defines this phenomenon – Link here

How to upgrade yourself – Link here

Greatest stock picker of all time: Buffett or Lynch? – Link here

With Pastures Shrinking, India May Have To Import Milk By 2021 – Link here– I think after reading this lot of FMCG/Dairy analyst would start getting queries on fodder strategy used by various listed dairy companies.

Lines that caught my attention

To boost milk yield, India would need to generate 1,764 million tonnes of fodder by 2020. But existing sources can only manage about 900 million tonnes of fodder–a shortage of 49%.

This demand and supply gap has pushed up milk prices by an average of 16% per annum, according to the according to the 2015 SOIL report.

The contribution of livestock to the incomes of landless and small farmers ranges between 20-50%.

Some time back I received a WhatsApp forward saying how farmers should be taxed to increase our tax to GDP ratio, how it’s unfair to not tax them….etc etc. here is different thought to tax system by Ajit Ranade (chief economist at Aditya Birla Group) – Quest to widen direct tax net – Link here

Indirect taxes in the form of excise taxes have risen by almost 50% for two consecutive years. Tax on petrol itself is up by 150% since July 2014. It is time we confront the curse of the silently escalating indirect taxes in India.

The recent data released on direct taxes pertaining to three years ago, shows taxes foregone on capital gains to be of the order of Rs54,000 crore.

The minimum threshold below which no income tax is paid is Rs2.5 lakh. This is 250% of India’s per capita gross domestic product (GDP).

 The Ultimate Way to Use Other People’s Money – Link here

The next time a resource sector is down big from its high and industry sentiment is terrible, start looking around for projects that have enormous amounts of capital sunk into them. Look for deposits firms have spent hundreds of millions of dollars studying, drilling, and permitting. You’ll often find you can buy all their work and knowledge for pennies on the dollar. It’s the ultimate way to use other people’s money (OPM).

Charlie Munger’s Most Important Concept (Takeaways from the DJCO Meeting) – Link here

You won’t get that many great ideas and, You don’t need that many great ideas

I’ve heard a lot of larger, well-known successful investors repeat the general idea that “investing is harder than it used to be”.

I think there are three general potential advantages that can be gained in the markets: Informational edge, Analytical edge and Time-horizon edge.

 I think that when great investors made fortunes using a particular technique and that technique is no longer working, they feel the game is much harder to win.

In the late 90’s, famed stock picker Julian Robertson closed the doors of his enormously successful hedge funds, citing that the market had “changed”, and that the strategies he used for decades were no longer working. At this same time, a new class of small stock pickers like Dan Loeb and David Einhorn were busy stacking up 30% annual returns in their early years when their funds were still small. Today Loeb and Einhorn are big, and both have hinted that things are different now.

Yuval Harari, author of Sapiens, on how meditation made him a better historian – Link here – if you have not read Sapiens, I dare you to give it a miss, I believe it’s must read for all of us.

My main ambition as a historian is to be able to tell the difference between what’s really happening in the world and what are the fictions that humans have been creating for thousands of years in order to explain or in order to control what’s happening in the world

We seldom realise it, but all large-scale human cooperation is based on fiction.

Money is probably the most successful story ever told. It has no objective value. It’s not like a banana or a coconut. If you take a dollar bill and look at it, you can’t eat it. You can’t drink it. You can’t wear it. It’s absolutely worthless. We think it’s worth something because we believe a story.

Scraping by on six figures? Tech workers feel poor in Silicon Valley’s wealth bubble – Link here

“It was $1,100 for a fucking bunk bed and five people in the same room. One guy was living in a closet, paying $1,400 for a ‘private room’.”

“We make over $1m between us, but we can’t afford a house,”

“For all the feminist movement of ‘you can do it all’, the concept of home ownership is really truly out of reach,” she said

The cost of rent and childcare, which cost “more than I paid for my university education in Canada”

End of a golden age – Unprecedented growth marked the era from 1948 to 1973. Economists might study it forever, but it can never be repeated. Why? – Link here

At the time, an oil crisis took the blame for what seemed to be a sharp but temporary downturn. Only gradually did it become clear that the underlying cause was not costly oil but rather lagging productivity growth – a problem that would defeat a wide variety of government policies put forth to correct it.

As late as 1948, incomes per person in much of Europe and Asia were lower than they had been 10 or even 20 years earlier. But 1948 brought a change for the better. In January, the US military government in Japan announced it would seek to rebuild the economy rather than exacting reparations from a country on the verge of starvation.

The US Congress approved the economic aid programme that would be known as the Marshall Plan, providing Western Europe with desperately needed dollars to import machinery, transport equipment, fertiliser and food.

As societies embarked on reconstruction, no one could deny that citizens who had been asked to sacrifice in war were entitled to share in the benefits of peace. In many cases, labour unions became the representatives of working people’s claims to peacetime dividends.

In addition to the growing welfare state, strong productivity growth contributed to rising living standards. Rising productivity – increasing the efficiency with which an economy uses labour, capital and other resources – is the main force that makes an economy grow.

Six rounds of trade negotiations between 1947 and 1967, ultimately involving nearly 50 countries that signed the General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade (GATT), brought a massive increase in cross-border trade, forcing manufacturers to modernise or give up.

Jobs were just for the asking; in 1966, West Germany’s unemployment rate touched an unprecedented 0.5 per cent.

The good times rolled on so long that people took them for granted. Between 1948 and 1973, Australia, Japan, Sweden and Italy had not a single year of recession.

Many of the basic technologies behind mobile telephones were developed in the 1960s and ’70s, but mobile phones came into widespread use only in the 1990s. Often, a new technology is phased in only over time as old buildings and equipment are phased out.

Moreover, for reasons no one fully understands, productivity growth and innovation seem to move in long cycles. In the US, for example, between the 1920s and 1973, innovation brought strong productivity growth. Between 1973 and 1995, it brought much less. The years between 1995 and 2003 saw high productivity gains, and then again considerably less thereafter.

Today, nearly 40 years on, voters are again turning to the Right, hoping that populist leaders will know how to make slow-growing economies great again.

More than a generation ago, the free-market policies of Thatcher and Reagan proved no more successful at improving productivity and raising economic growth than the policies they supplanted. There is no reason to think that the populists of our day will do much better. The Golden Age was wonderful while it lasted, but it cannot be repeated. If there were a surefire method for coaxing extraordinary performance from mature economies, it likely would have been discovered a long time ago.

I think Zomato is doing something every interesting, which probably has never been tried before in restaurant/food industry anywhere in the world- Zomato Infrastructure Services – 101 – Link here

There won’t be any fixed cost for restaurant brands to use Zomato Infrastructure Services. In fact, we will only charge them a nominal percentage of their revenue – we win only if these brands win. Our ZIS team will act as a key partner for them to make their business successful, and in the process, our business successful. Talk of win-wins – business doesn’t have to be, and shouldn’t be a win-lose situation.

Arvind Dixit – he was the COO of Wendy’s India in his previous role. He has been working with large scale QSRs for all the 18 years of his work life.

Our initial estimates tell us that with some hard work, we can have a 100 locations by the end of 2018.

Buffett’s Honor versus 3G – Link here

Take away the rubbish in data”—read discrepancies— and “our actual growth rate is around 4%, about half of what is being claimed.” – Link here

“The bulk of growth has apparently materialised from Rs 140,000 crore Take away the rubbish in data”—read discrepancies— and “our actual growth rate is around 4%, about half of what is being claimed.”

The race for autonomous cars is over. Silicon Valley lost  – But there’s still money to be made by tech companies in the automotive world – Link here

Why Swedes overpay their taxes – Link here

Manifestos And Monopolies – Link here

(Video) Somehow This Amazing Electromagnetic Car Suspension System Never Got Popular – Link here

Read, Learn, Improve – 25-Feb-17

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24% India’s MPs/MLAs Say They Don’t Need To Pay Tax Or Have No Income – Link here

As many as 1,676 (35%) elected representatives declared annual incomes less than Rs 2.5 lakh.

Why are Indian engineers so afraid of ‘artificial intelligence’? – Link here – Line that caught my attention

“Forget getting people of our choice, we don’t even get applications when we advertise for positions for our AI team,”

“Around 40% of their working time is spent searching for the right talent”

“Only 4% of AI professionals in India have actually worked on cutting-edge technologies like deep learning and neural networks”

My Snap Story: Valuing Snap ahead of its IPO! – Link here

The Data That Turned the World Upside Down – Link here

Apples and Oranges: Why ISRO Rockets Aren’t Comparable to Falcons or Arianes – Link here

The practical, unsexy steps it takes to actually become a millionaire – Link here

Gigerenzer’s simple rules – Link here – line that caught my attention

“There is a big difference between risk and uncertainty. You are dealing with risk when you know all the alternatives, outcomes and their probabilities. You are dealing with uncertainty when you don’t know all the alternatives, outcomes or their probabilities. “

“My advise would be to trust more in expert knowledge, in long years of experience. Don’t buy statistical algorithms you don’t understand. Many managers buy big data algorithms which come in black boxes because they are not sure, they don’t really understand what all these are about. But they think, ‘if I don’t buy that, and if things go wrong, I am responsible, and have to take the blame. If I buy that, it costs the company something, but I am safe’. There is a lot defensive decision in society and unwillingness to take responsibility, and the fear of one’s own common sense.”

An AI Hedge Fund Created a New Currency to Make Wall Street Work Like Open Source – Link here

Sorry, Y’All—Humanity’s Nearing an Upgrade to Irrelevance – Link here

Where Flying Cars Might Take Us – Link here

We tend to think of blue sky as a free-for-all, but the Federal Aviation Administration has strict rules controlling where aircraft can go.

The rules are designed to keep airplanes from knocking each other out of the sky and terrorizing the people on the ground.

Virat Kohli’s Rs 110-crore deal with Puma may sound earth-shattering, but it’s actually a steal – Link here

It’s an unprecedented deal for an Indian sports personality – Rs 110 crore over eight years works out to Rs 13.75 crore, or approximately $2 million, annually. And that’s just with one single brand.

In 2014, the German sport apparel giant had signed Kohli on for a three-year deal worth Rs 30 crore, which is Rs 10 crore per year. Whatever the reasons, the contract was not renewed in 2017, and Puma barged in.

“That’s the reason why Nike has lifetime deals with LeBron James, Cristiano Ronaldo and Michael Jordan, and Adidas with David Beckham”

Coming back to the deal itself, Rs 110 crore is a lot of money. Only Sachin Tendulkar and MS Dhoni come close when it comes to the valuation. Both have been in the Rs 100-crore league, but only via multiple brands.

“If Puma had to pay any international star, it would not be less than $5 million a year. They are getting Virat for $2 million a year and that’s a very good deal,”

Usain Bolt, has multiple-time Olympic gold-medallist signed a $10 million-a-year deal with Puma in 2013 through to 2016, an “extra $10 million” if the Jamiacan takes part in the 2017 World Championships in Athletics, and an additional $4 million annual salary to be a “Puma ambassador” after retiring. According to Forbes, Bolt’s deal with Puma runs through to 2025, which will be long after his retirement.

Inside the Macedonian fake-news complex – Link here

Why Humanity Destroyed Itself – (YouTube) – Link here

Explore India using data – explore. visualize. compare. Understand – Link here – you can compared / visualize data district /state/gender/religion etc etc. explore and learn about India.

No CEO: The Swedish company where nobody is in charge – Link here – Headline says it all.

 

Read, Learn, Improve – 18-Feb-17

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Image result for reading is awesome

 

The AI Threat Isn’t Skynet. It’s the End of the Middle Class – Link here. The lines that caught my attention

“I am less concerned with Terminator scenarios,” MIT economist Andrew McAfee said on the first day at Asilomar. “If current trends continue, people are going to rise up well before the machines do.”

“A universal basic income doesn’t give people dignity or protect them from boredom and vice,”

“Anyone making confident predictions about anything having to do with the future of artificial intelligence is either kidding you or kidding themselves,”

I believe what truly we “investor community” like about investing is the intricacies of the business, from how it is started to its run and to how it gets in a problem and how it comes out a problem. Most of the time we learn about legal business, here is article about one illegal business, written by famous author Suketu Mehta – Queens of the Stoned Age – Link here – few lines that caught my attention

“Dispatchers get 10 percent of each sale; the runners get 20 percent, which averages out to $300 or $400 a day. Several of them, according to Honey (owner), “are paying off their NYU student loans.”

“He says the greatest threat to his industry (weed) is not the cartels or the cops; it’s the “men in suits”—the drug companies. Monsanto, he claims, is actively researching a way to create the most potent weed. “It shouldn’t be Monsanto, shouldn’t be Marlboro selling a pack of pre-rolled joints,” he tells me. “It’s a plant, it’s a weed. It’s not dangerous. Big business is the dangerous part. Big corporations are going to juice it full of stuff, carcinogens.” – (probably a time one should relook at investment in Monsanto)

Trump Puts U.S. Valuation Premium at Risk – Link here

Code-Dependent: Pros and Cons of the Algorithm Age – Link here – below is the first of many para that caught my attention, after that every other para seemed insightful, meaning which I would have literally copy-pasted whole article.

Our algorithms are now redefining what we think, how we think and what we know. We need to ask them to think about their thinking – to look out for pitfalls and inherent biases before those are baked in and harder to remove. – para following this gives an idea of future job which probably doesn’t exist right now.

Anatomy of a Bull Market – Link here – it’s fully based on US indices, however the insights into the various bull market is very interesting.

Getting Rich vs. Staying Rich – Link here –  line that caught my attention

Charlie Munger, one of AmEx’s largest investors said this week: “If you think you know what the state of the payments system will be 10 years out you’re in a state of delusion.”

On Pain, Understanding, and The Illusion of Happiness – Link here – the line that caught my attention

If you most people what they are trying to do, the answer is trying to be happy while “Happiness, as we imagine it, was probably inconceivable – if not laughable – to our ancestors, whose short and difficult lives were primarily occupied with the necessities of survival.”

Yet, while our lives have become cleaner, safer, and more convenient, we are perhaps less happy than our exhausted and miserable ancestors.

Decision Making amid Uncertainty: Six Steps to Improve Your Process – Link here

Here’s why the majority of hedge funds may never be able to beat the market again – Link here

The robot that takes your job should pay taxes, says Bill Gates – Link here

Driven By Male Reluctance, India’s Contraceptive Use Falls, Population Surges – Link here – gives you insight why street is bullish on Piramal Enterprise (i-Pill)

Human Embryo Editing Gets the OK—But No Superbabies – Link here

 

 

 

 

Read, Learn, Improve – 11-Feb-17

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The Debate Finally Seems to Have Ended: Robo-Advisors Vs. Humans – Link here

Michael Jackson Is Worth More Than Ever, and the IRS Wants Its Cut – Jackson’s star lawyer made a mint for his heirs, so now the government has to be startin’ somethin’ – Link here

A CEO’s tale: How demonetisation halved the profits of a multinational company that used no cash – Link here

When shareholders aren’t watching, managers misbehave – Link here.

Key takeaway – Understanding managers’ behaviour in environments where shareholder attention is limited could “significantly improve our understanding of value creation in firms,” and “Perhaps the best advice to a distracted shareholder is to assume that management is misbehaving when no one is looking.”

The Heroism Of Incremental Care – By Atul Gawande – Link here. The line that caught my attention

“Governments everywhere tend to drastically undervalue incrementalism and overvalue heroism”

“We don’t like to address problems until they are well upon us and unavoidable, and we don’t trust solutions that promise benefits only down the road.”

Remember Winklevoss twins? Who sued Mark Zuckerberg for stealing their concept have a unique new business idea – bitcoin ETF – As Bitcoin ETF Nears, Analysts Warn of Trading Frenzy – Link here

Driverless car are rage and everybody seems to be assuming its gone be reality very soon, even I thought same until I was reading this article – Allow mathematicians to pierce artificial intelligence frontiers – Link here and this line caught my attention “These computer programs, however, need copious amounts of carefully categorized data to make themselves smarter. Anything that is sloppily characterised can easily cause the machine to make the wrong conclusions. I have mentioned before in this column that it has been proven that just changing a few pixels on an image can make an AI image-recognition program conclude that a car is in fact an elephant—which is a mistake that an ordinarily intelligent human eye would never make.”  I think public at large are underestimating the amount of work is needed to improve.

Predicting human behaviour is legal, predicting machines is not? – Link here – line that caught my attention “Unlike the vulnerabilities in the slot machines, the vulnerabilities in the human brain cannot be fixed by a software update. Yet hacking the human brain is apparently completely legal, and it is not only the casinos which are doing this. Probably half of the finance industry is based on the same principles.”

We’re One Step Closer To Long-Term Birth Control For Men – Link here

The Next American Farm Bust Is Upon us – Link here

Offshore Wind Moves Into Energy’s Mainstream – Link here

8 Ways to Read (a Lot) More Books This Year – Link here

2017: The year of the Chinese internet bounty hunters –  The Indian market frenzy has cooled down. And it is the perfect time for the Chinese internet giants to make their big moves. As they go head-to-head with the Silicon Valley giants, it could change the Indian internet landscape forever. The concluding part of a special two part series – Link here – line that caught my attention

“The Chinese have learnt their lessons back home in a context that is very different from the West. They implicitly know India is different—both from the West and their home ground as well. Give or take $30 billion, and they can buy out pretty much the second largest internet market in the world. Why build from scratch then?”

“The Chinese intimately understand the mobile-first ecosystem better than their Western counterparts. In any case, India is headed here too. So, it’s Advantage China again.”

“Quick wins by Amazon and Uber may have lulled the Americans into believing India is their market for the taking. In any case, an American stranglehold on the Indian consumer exists in the form of Facebook, WhatsApp, YouTube and Google.”

Hans Rosling, does that name ring any bell? If yes then you are already aware about his talent on bringing life in statistics. If you don’t I strongly recommend you check out his video on YouTube, my personal favorite is “200 Countries, 200 Years, 4 Minutes” . Hans Rosling recently passed away at age of 68.

The Big Leap – MotilalOswal

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Motilal Oswal came up with very interesting report namely -The Big Leap, it basically highlights with an introduction of GST and various other laws how a lot of business would witness exit of unorganised player and increase in market share of organised player. I have taken few charts that clearly highlights the potential sector that could benefit. However, this is probably the first step in deciding which sector to evaluate then proceed with a company in a given sector. A lot would depend on each company’s offering & business model, management quality & corporate governance, health of existing balance sheet and ultimately Valuation.

Potential beneficiaries of shifting trade to organised sector

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